Computer Hardware Availability Nuttery..

2

Comments

  • TorquinoxTorquinox Posts: 3,636

    It's hard to downplay the fact that we're also in a world-wide semiconductor shortage that affects all sectors that rely on semiconductors from the automakers to the game console makers and beyond.

  • MelissaGTMelissaGT Posts: 2,611
    edited May 2021

    scott762_948aec318a said:

    You're forgetting people have credit cards, and LOTS of people don't make sound financial decisions with them.  wink

    People are paying stupid prices on Ebay for these cards.  And every year when these new consoles come out, there's lots of people paying 2x-3x retail on them.  Someone who's willing to pay $800 for a 3060 on Ebay is darn sure willing to buy a 3070 or 3080 at retail price if they can get it.

     

    There's also another huge thing you missed - the latest gen consoles are sold out everywhere too.  Going price on Ebay for a Playstation 5 looks to be about 900 dollars!!!  (Which you can't mine on).

     

    melissastjames said:

    Matt_Castle said:

    melissastjames said:

    The GTX 1060 had a ~$250 price point. The RTX 3090 has a ~$1500 price point (when not being scalped). That's like comparing apples to coconuts. Someone who would spend $250 on a GPU would certainly upgrade eventually, but they'd likely upgrade to something within the same price scale...not jump from the Corolla to the Ferrari.

    I think you're looking at it wrong. It probably isn't a few people making a big jump, but lots of people making small jumps.

    People who had the 1060 (between $199 and $299 depending on variant) might go for the 3060 ($329) or the 3060 Ti ($399). People who had the 1050 Ti or 1650 don't currently have an option to go lower than the 3060 if they want to upgrade to the current generation, as the 3050 and 3050 Ti aren't out yet. That eats up the supply of the lower end 30 series cards.

    People who might then have considered the 3060 and 3060 Ti on the lower end of their price scale now have to buy the 3070, eating up that supply. People who might have bought either the 3070 or 3080 are then forced to go for the 3080... lots of knock-on effects where lots of people end up going one model higher than they might otherwise have.

    Yes but my point is that if you were using top tier cards before the pandemic, then you would be using top tier cards now. Those who had no use for a top tier card before or couldn't afford one, likely wouldn't now...so I don't see how the pandemic would change that. If someone were to become a gamer due to being home over the past year, unless they had money to burn and a lot of people don't because of layoffs etc, then they wouldn't be buying $1500 graphics cards. They'd be buying entry-level stuff. So in that respect, yes I can see a jump in gaming having more than a blip of an effect on card availability. But I still have a hard time seeing gaming as being a reason for the shortage on 3080's and 3090's. People who are looking for those cards would a) have bought that price point before the pandemic and would have naturally been a part of NVIDIA's demographic anyways, or b) used bots to buy all the 3080's and 3090's up because they are scalpers or cyptominers. 

    I can totally see console availability and pricing impacted by the pandemic. I'd imagine most would dip into gaming that way, especially with parents buying stuff to keep their kids occupied and out of their hair.

    I still don't see the Average Joe running to buy a 3090. If one is looking for that card, they have a very specific reason...whether it's hardcore gaming or digital graphics and rendering, whathaveyou...and that definitely includes the crypto craze.  

    Oh, and here I thought everybody was using stimulus payments to pay down debt like I did...LOL. :P

    I really did. I've been paying down debt like crazy over the past year in fear of something happening financially. 

    Post edited by MelissaGT on
  • Gator_2236745Gator_2236745 Posts: 1,312
    edited May 2021

    melissastjames said:

    scott762_948aec318a said:

    You're forgetting people have credit cards, and LOTS of people don't make sound financial decisions with them.  wink

    People are paying stupid prices on Ebay for these cards.  And every year when these new consoles come out, there's lots of people paying 2x-3x retail on them.  Someone who's willing to pay $800 for a 3060 on Ebay is darn sure willing to buy a 3070 or 3080 at retail price if they can get it.

     

    There's also another huge thing you missed - the latest gen consoles are sold out everywhere too.  Going price on Ebay for a Playstation 5 looks to be about 900 dollars!!!  (Which you can't mine on).

     

    melissastjames said:

    Matt_Castle said:

    melissastjames said:

    The GTX 1060 had a ~$250 price point. The RTX 3090 has a ~$1500 price point (when not being scalped). That's like comparing apples to coconuts. Someone who would spend $250 on a GPU would certainly upgrade eventually, but they'd likely upgrade to something within the same price scale...not jump from the Corolla to the Ferrari.

    I think you're looking at it wrong. It probably isn't a few people making a big jump, but lots of people making small jumps.

    People who had the 1060 (between $199 and $299 depending on variant) might go for the 3060 ($329) or the 3060 Ti ($399). People who had the 1050 Ti or 1650 don't currently have an option to go lower than the 3060 if they want to upgrade to the current generation, as the 3050 and 3050 Ti aren't out yet. That eats up the supply of the lower end 30 series cards.

    People who might then have considered the 3060 and 3060 Ti on the lower end of their price scale now have to buy the 3070, eating up that supply. People who might have bought either the 3070 or 3080 are then forced to go for the 3080... lots of knock-on effects where lots of people end up going one model higher than they might otherwise have.

    Yes but my point is that if you were using top tier cards before the pandemic, then you would be using top tier cards now. Those who had no use for a top tier card before or couldn't afford one, likely wouldn't now...so I don't see how the pandemic would change that. If someone were to become a gamer due to being home over the past year, unless they had money to burn and a lot of people don't because of layoffs etc, then they wouldn't be buying $1500 graphics cards. They'd be buying entry-level stuff. So in that respect, yes I can see a jump in gaming having more than a blip of an effect on card availability. But I still have a hard time seeing gaming as being a reason for the shortage on 3080's and 3090's. People who are looking for those cards would a) have bought that price point before the pandemic and would have naturally been a part of NVIDIA's demographic anyways, or b) used bots to buy all the 3080's and 3090's up because they are scalpers or cyptominers. 

    I can totally see console availability and pricing impacted by the pandemic. I'd imagine most would dip into gaming that way, especially with parents buying stuff to keep their kids occupied and out of their hair.

    I still don't see the Average Joe running to buy a 3090. If one is looking for that card, they have a very specific reason...whether it's hardcore gaming or digital graphics and rendering, whathaveyou...and that definitely includes the crypto craze.  

    Oh, and here I thought everybody was using stimulus payments to pay down debt like I did...LOL. :P

    I really did. I've been paying down debt like crazy over the past year in fear of something happening financially. 

    @Matt_Castle already mentioned it - availability is what's leading people to bump up a card.  People who couldn't buy a 3080 are buying 3090s.  I remember reading and watching video of the people camping out in line at Microcenters who bought 3090s because the 3080s were sold out. 

    If you think people aren't buying 3090's for the small performance gain for games, even less are buying them for mining.  Gaming is more driven by emotion, mining is driven by profit which is far more rational thought.  Miners aren't paying 2x the cost of a 3080 for a 3090 to mine with a 10-ish percent increase in performance.  The ROI (return on investment) is terrible.

     

    Post edited by Gator_2236745 on
  • Ghosty12Ghosty12 Posts: 2,065
    edited May 2021

    Torquinox said:

    It's hard to downplay the fact that we're also in a world-wide semiconductor shortage that affects all sectors that rely on semiconductors from the automakers to the game console makers and beyond.

    That is true and a pain in the rear, but with that video I posted in my OP does not help either..  In the end crypto miners do look to be a larger consumer of GPU's than anyone else, one has to look at that period when Pascal based GPU's were current.. Prices went absurdly high due to crypto miners buying up stock as fast as they could, and back then there was no pandemic to shift everyones attention and to help create component shortages..

    Post edited by Ghosty12 on
  • TorquinoxTorquinox Posts: 3,636

    Ghosty12 said:

    Torquinox said:

    It's hard to downplay the fact that we're also in a world-wide semiconductor shortage that affects all sectors that rely on semiconductors from the automakers to the game console makers and beyond.

    That is true and a pain in the rear, but with that the video I posted in my OP does not help either..  In the end crypto miners do look to be a larger consumer of GPU's than anyone else, one has to look at that period when Pascal based GPU's were current.. Prices went absurdly high due to crypto miners buying up stock as fast as they could, and back then there was no pandemic to shift everyones attention either..

    I agree, that video reveals an alarming situation. And I recall that last run on video hardware. The Chia currency is directly linked as the main culprit in the developing run on SSD drives. This mining nonsense is out of hand!

  • Ghosty12Ghosty12 Posts: 2,065
    edited May 2021

    Torquinox said:

    Ghosty12 said:

    Torquinox said:

    It's hard to downplay the fact that we're also in a world-wide semiconductor shortage that affects all sectors that rely on semiconductors from the automakers to the game console makers and beyond.

    That is true and a pain in the rear, but with that video I posted in my OP does not help either..  In the end crypto miners do look to be a larger consumer of GPU's than anyone else, one has to look at that period when Pascal based GPU's were current.. Prices went absurdly high due to crypto miners buying up stock as fast as they could, and back then there was no pandemic to shift everyones attention either..

    I agree, that video reveals an alarming situation. And I recall that last run on video hardware. The Chia currency is directly linked as the main culprit in the developing run on SSD drives. This mining nonsense is out of hand!

    And this is what makes it annoying trying to get a new video card or SSD cheaply.. We do know is that some of the manufacturers of these products, and the distributors don't care about us at the end, just seeing the current prices for computer hardware..

    Post edited by Ghosty12 on
  • TorquinoxTorquinox Posts: 3,636

    Various news outlets are reporting that crypto is having an awful day today with Bitcoin shedding 25% of its value. Given certain public statements by certain people in the recent past, this is not really a surprise.

  • Ghosty12Ghosty12 Posts: 2,065

    Torquinox said:

    Various news outlets are reporting that crypto is having an awful day today with Bitcoin shedding 25% of its value. Given certain public statements by certain people in the recent past, this is not really a surprise.

    Yeah I saw that with the one of the biggest drops due to what Elon said, and then to see it drop more can expect to see a lot of overused cards soon..

  • MelissaGTMelissaGT Posts: 2,611

    Torquinox said:

    Various news outlets are reporting that crypto is having an awful day today with Bitcoin shedding 25% of its value. Given certain public statements by certain people in the recent past, this is not really a surprise.

    Sorry to anybody invested in crypto currency but...good.  

  • novastridernovastrider Posts: 208
    edited May 2021

    Ghosty12 said:

    Torquinox said:

    Various news outlets are reporting that crypto is having an awful day today with Bitcoin shedding 25% of its value. Given certain public statements by certain people in the recent past, this is not really a surprise.

    Yeah I saw that with the one of the biggest drops due to what Elon said, and then to see it drop more can expect to see a lot of overused cards soon..

    Can't wait for the big sell-out to begin. Too bad most of those second hand cards will be ruined by cryptos burning them full power, 24/7th, every day of the year.

    Post edited by novastrider on
  • rrwardrrward Posts: 556

    I've been waiting for a 3090 or 3080ti since the 3090 was announced. Luckily my 2080ti's are still healthy, but if they die... And my gaming rig is still rocking its 2070 Super. Don't have any plans to upgrade that poor thing any time soon. Going to have to upgrade my render box's motherboard and CPU soon as the current one has an I/O issue that can cause Studio to lock up the system when rendering. 

    Yay.

  • markgoode77markgoode77 Posts: 343
    edited May 2021

    Sadly, bitcoin appears to be recovering a little now.  Here's where all our GPUs are: TELEMMGLPICT000248613560_trans_NvBQzQNjv4Bqe5jTtuvhyhg4PHi86V8a0p815QE7DqplUJlHpAWoYtg.jpeg (1920×1200) (telegraph.co.uk)

    (Hopefully not behing paywall).

    Post edited by markgoode77 on
  • TorquinoxTorquinox Posts: 3,636

    markgoode77, I saw that, too. Your picture is not behind a paywall. Wow! That's impressive and depressing.

  • TaozTaoz Posts: 9,979
    edited May 2021

    novastrider said:

    Ghosty12 said:

    Torquinox said:

    Various news outlets are reporting that crypto is having an awful day today with Bitcoin shedding 25% of its value. Given certain public statements by certain people in the recent past, this is not really a surprise.

    Yeah I saw that with the one of the biggest drops due to what Elon said, and then to see it drop more can expect to see a lot of overused cards soon..

    Can't wait for the big sell-out to begin. Too bad most of those second hand cards will be ruined by cryptos burning them full power, 24/7th, every day of the year.

    The pro's actually lower the voltage of the cards to reduce heat and electricity costs - apparently it doesn't affect performance (sounds odd yes). 

     

     

     

    Post edited by Taoz on
  • Gator_2236745Gator_2236745 Posts: 1,312

    markgoode77 said:

    Sadly, bitcoin appears to be recovering a little now.  Here's where all our GPUs are: TELEMMGLPICT000248613560_trans_NvBQzQNjv4Bqe5jTtuvhyhg4PHi86V8a0p815QE7DqplUJlHpAWoYtg.jpeg (1920×1200) (telegraph.co.uk)

    (Hopefully not behing paywall).

    Those are ASIC miners, not motherboards with GPUs.   Those serious miners are using ASICs.  wink

  • markgoode77markgoode77 Posts: 343

    scott762_948aec318a said:

    markgoode77 said:

    Sadly, bitcoin appears to be recovering a little now.  Here's where all our GPUs are: TELEMMGLPICT000248613560_trans_NvBQzQNjv4Bqe5jTtuvhyhg4PHi86V8a0p815QE7DqplUJlHpAWoYtg.jpeg (1920×1200) (telegraph.co.uk)

    (Hopefully not behing paywall).

    Those are ASIC miners, not motherboards with GPUs.   Those serious miners are using ASICs.  wink

    Really?  Then why don't they all use them and not our GPUs. 

  • TorquinoxTorquinox Posts: 3,636

    markgoode77,

    Those are apparently expensive and use loads of electricity, too.

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/asic.asp

    "Although investing in cryptocurrency can be, costly, and only sporadically rewarding, some investors are drawn to it. People buy expensive ASICS and pay for lots of electricity so that they may earn more bitcoin, which may be exchanged for real-world currency. "

  • Gator_2236745Gator_2236745 Posts: 1,312

    markgoode77 said:

    scott762_948aec318a said:

    markgoode77 said:

    Sadly, bitcoin appears to be recovering a little now.  Here's where all our GPUs are: TELEMMGLPICT000248613560_trans_NvBQzQNjv4Bqe5jTtuvhyhg4PHi86V8a0p815QE7DqplUJlHpAWoYtg.jpeg (1920×1200) (telegraph.co.uk)

    (Hopefully not behing paywall).

    Those are ASIC miners, not motherboards with GPUs.   Those serious miners are using ASICs.  wink

    Really?  Then why don't they all use them and not our GPUs. 

    They're really expensive, but mine many times more what GPUs mine.

    Little fish use GPUs, big fish use ASICs.  Generally. 

  • Matt_CastleMatt_Castle Posts: 2,674

    markgoode77 said:

    Really?  Then why don't they all use them and not our GPUs. 

    It depends on the currency and the algorithm used. ASICs are very specialised computing units, and only exist for some cryptos because they have the right hashing algorithm and the time to get them developed and enough potential for power saving to make it worth the development. They're mostly a thing for Bitcoin, although currencies like Ethereum are starting to see alledged ASIC system, and if if Ethereum doesn't do what it promises and head over to Proof of Stake, then more Ethereum ASICs are likely to come about with time.

    However, even though ASICs are the ideal solution when possible, it's complicated at the moment by the fact that the price of crypto is so high. There was a point at which trying to mine Bitcoin on GPUs would lose you money, because you earned less than the power used, but with the BTC price at the moment, and the improvements in modern hardware, using GPUs is profitable again, so they're making use of whatever hardware they can get their hands on.

  • nicsttnicstt Posts: 11,715

    AllenArt said:

    stephenschoon said:

    Be patient, the madness will subside and it will all settle down eventually.

    I was looking on Amazon UK one day and there was a RTX3090 for over £4K from Lithuania, I passed...

    Steve.

    I only hope my 980Ti lives that long. 

    Mines still working, although now it drives my monitors and is not used for rendering.

    It cost a bit when I bought it, but considering, it's been good value.

    ... Better than the 3090 i bought I expect.

  • marblemarble Posts: 7,500

    I was considering this discussion and wondering what might happen in the coming months. I imagined a couple of scenarios: firstly that the constant shortage would encourage manufacturers to increase their output to meet demand. Secondly that the Crypto-boom falters and demand for GPUs drops. I further imagine that the manufacturers are considering both scenarios and would bet that they probably think the latter is more likely so they will not invest in more factory space if they think the crypto boom is going to collapse.

    I was one of the fortunate ones who managed to get a 3090 at a couple of hundred above list price rather that double or triple the price as I'm seeing these days. I was also lucky having family to help out with a gift towards the cost. So my 3090 is now keeping my legs warm under my desk in these cool winter months down here in NZ. Oh, and it renders in minutes what used to take hours on my old 1070. Nevertheless, I worry about the next upgrade because I can't expect a repeat of the generosity that allowed me to afford this 3090 and, unless we see one of the two above scenarios play out, I am going to have to hope that the 3090 does not become obsolete as the render engines are developed further.

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 41,245

    Torquinox said:

    It's hard to downplay the fact that we're also in a world-wide semiconductor shortage that affects all sectors that rely on semiconductors from the automakers to the game console makers and beyond.

    ...thank you, I was going to mention that myself.  

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 41,245

    melissastjames said:

    Oh, and here I thought everybody was using stimulus payments to pay down debt like I did...LOL. :P

    I really did. I've been paying down debt like crazy over the past year in fear of something happening financially. 

    ...did the same, paid off a number of past due bills  before the moratoriums on shut offs expired (got way behind just before the pandemic due to deductions taken from my SS benefits for a while)   Still have a bit tucked away for emergencies or covering unexpected expenses.  My only splurges were a reconditiond W7 notebook (with an SSD),a couple new SSDs for my primary system, and an additional 4 TB backup HDD.

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 41,245

    Torquinox said:

    Ghosty12 said:

    Torquinox said:

    It's hard to downplay the fact that we're also in a world-wide semiconductor shortage that affects all sectors that rely on semiconductors from the automakers to the game console makers and beyond.

    That is true and a pain in the rear, but with that the video I posted in my OP does not help either..  In the end crypto miners do look to be a larger consumer of GPU's than anyone else, one has to look at that period when Pascal based GPU's were current.. Prices went absurdly high due to crypto miners buying up stock as fast as they could, and back then there was no pandemic to shift everyones attention either..

    I agree, that video reveals an alarming situation. And I recall that last run on video hardware. The Chia currency is directly linked as the main culprit in the developing run on SSD drives. This mining nonsense is out of hand!

    ....glad the SSDs I ordered arrived last week. 

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 41,245
    edited May 2021

    @ Marble:   ...I'm "concerned" about my Titan-X as Maxwell is next up on the Nvidia chopping block.  I certainly cannot afford a new GPU at the prices being asked for today.  I also certainly don't want to backtrack to a smaller VRAM unit (12 GB kind of spoils you, particularly when, like myself, you create fairly "heavy" scenes), and most definitely not in a position to buy a new pre or custom built system just to get a comparable or better GPU. 

    After reading a number of posts hat give other possible reasons for the pricing than cryptomining. There is still the matter of sellers like the one on eBay would buy and sell GPU cards in large lots, for ridiculous prices.  As I mentioned earlier, that order for the 72 RTX 3060Ti AC cards breaks down to over 1,100$ per card (for one that would normally retail for a little over 400$), so whoever bought that lot will either have to jack up the price even further to make a profit or is building some sort of super mining network.

    Post edited by kyoto kid on
  • TorquinoxTorquinox Posts: 3,636

    kyoto kid said:

    Torquinox said:

    It's hard to downplay the fact that we're also in a world-wide semiconductor shortage that affects all sectors that rely on semiconductors from the automakers to the game console makers and beyond.

    ...thank you, I was going to mention that myself.  

    Cheers Kyoto Kid!

  • NotAnArtistNotAnArtist Posts: 390

    Hmm, so then, long story short, it's not likely this scenario is going to change anytime soon?

    I spent last year stretching dollars to buy components, piece-by-piece, for building a good, strong rendering machine.

    All those components are still in their original shipping boxes. Without a worthy GPU, what's the point? And at my age, I'm not sure my health is going to last long enough to make this wait worth it when things do finally clear up...

    On the good side, I've saved $1500 by not getting the 3090! Gonna spend it on lots of pizzas and beer!

  • Gator_2236745Gator_2236745 Posts: 1,312

    NotAnArtist said:

    Hmm, so then, long story short, it's not likely this scenario is going to change anytime soon?

    I spent last year stretching dollars to buy components, piece-by-piece, for building a good, strong rendering machine.

    All those components are still in their original shipping boxes. Without a worthy GPU, what's the point? And at my age, I'm not sure my health is going to last long enough to make this wait worth it when things do finally clear up...

    On the good side, I've saved $1500 by not getting the 3090! Gonna spend it on lots of pizzas and beer!

    Sadly, we can expect these shortages all through 2021.  frown

    https://youtu.be/BVxvH3Qabgw

  • Gator_2236745Gator_2236745 Posts: 1,312

    I forgot more evidence of the shortages that's caused by gamers:

    I just got a new motherboard, the ASUS ROG Crosshair VIII Dark Hero.  It was announced back in October, and some lucky folks got it late October/early November.  I got a few pop-ups of availability from a YouTube channel watching hardware and some Newegg emails, but they were gone in seconds when I ran over to Newegg.  Finally first week of April I got an email again, rather than the page showing out of stock I was able to preorder so I did.  A month later it shipped!  But then there were no Ryzen 5000 CPUs to be had... after 2-3 weeks I relented and I wound up paying a fair bit extra buying one off of a seller on Amazon.

    Nobody is paying $450+ on a premium overclocking board for mining, or buying Ryzen 5000 CPUs for mining either.  These are all items gamers are buying and very difficult to get at suggested retail.

  • JamesJABJamesJAB Posts: 1,760

    kyoto kid said:

    @ Marble:   ...I'm "concerned" about my Titan-X as Maxwell is next up on the Nvidia chopping block.  I certainly cannot afford a new GPU at the prices being asked for today.  I also certainly don't want to backtrack to a smaller VRAM unit (12 GB kind of spoils you, particularly when, like myself, you create fairly "heavy" scenes), and most definitely not in a position to buy a new pre or custom built system just to get a comparable or better GPU. 

    After reading a number of posts hat give other possible reasons for the pricing than cryptomining. There is still the matter of sellers like the one on eBay would buy and sell GPU cards in large lots, for ridiculous prices.  As I mentioned earlier, that order for the 72 RTX 3060Ti AC cards breaks down to over 1,100$ per card (for one that would normally retail for a little over 400$), so whoever bought that lot will either have to jack up the price even further to make a profit or is building some sort of super mining network.

     The Iray chopping block is not so much a GPU generation thing as it is a driver version thing.  As of right now, only some of the Kepler cards are excluded from the current minimum Iray driver, so hopefully your Titan X has a few more years before it is considered legacy hardware. (as of last time I checked)

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